BAE Systems’ John Hroncich on U.S. transit: hybrids rebound as zero-emission transition continues

The U.S. transit bus market is facing a challenging period, with budget and financing constraints, changes in the manufacturing landscape and the ongoing transition towards low- and zero-emission technologies.

Against this backdrop, Sustainable Bus spoke with John Hroncich, Director, North American Transit Sales at BAE Systems, about the current state of the market and the technology choices facing U.S. transit agencies. Primarily known as a global aerospace and defence group, BAE Systems has also been active in transit electrification for around 30 years, supplying electric powertrains and accessory management systems for hybrid-electric and battery-electric buses.

Hroncich discusses the role of hybrid technology in today’s U.S. market, the trajectory of zero-emission bus deployment and how BAE Systems is approaching investment in new technologies. The conversation also covers the company’s plug-in hybrid solution and the 7.2-liter hybrid system being developed with Cummins, now scheduled for release in January 2028.

The interview comes ahead of APTA Expo in Chicago, where BAE Systems will showcase its system-level powertrain integration, plug-in hybrid capabilities and field-serviceable accessory power management technology. The discussion also touches on energy storage developments beyond transit and the potential role of autonomous driving technologies in U.S. public transport.

Transit market in the U.S.: a challenging period

The U.S. transit market is going through a challenging period. What do you see as the main constraints affecting the market today?

The whole industry went through Covid. It might seem like a long time ago, but it took a long time to recover in terms of ridership.

Over those years since 2020, the ‘pyramid’ of manufacturers got very narrow at the top. Some names that have been in the press over the last few years left the market. Companies like Nova Bus left the U.S. market, ElDorado left and now has come back. We’re actually seeing another company, Solaris, coming to market.

So I’m encouraged that the top of that pyramid is getting a little wider. It’s not so pointy at the top. More OEMs is best for the industry. It helps with competitiveness, it helps with the supply chain, with more channels to market and more options for transit agencies.

I do think that the transit industry in the U.S. is getting healthier and more robust, and that’s a good thing.

In terms of technologies, we’re seeing strong demand for both our low emission hybrid and zero-emission battery-electric solutions. The fuel cell market is still nascent, I would say, in the U.S. We developed fuel cell technologies going back to 2010, so it’s something that BAE is keeping an eye on. But I would say it’s still a nascent market.

What is the place of BAE Systems in this environment? 

BAE Systems has been a technology company involved with the electrification of transit fleets for 30 years now. In our own product line, we’ve had three major iterations, what we refer to as Generation 1, Gen 2 and now Gen 3.

We’re seeing pretty strong demand for our products. Our product line is unique in the market because it addresses both low-emission solutions, such as hybrid-electric buses, as well as zero-emission solutions, such as battery-electric buses.

We provide the powertrain and the accessory management systems that go into those types of buses. We are a Tier 2 supplier: we supply our powertrains, our electric motor-based powertrains, to bus manufacturers. But we also have very unique and in-depth relationships with transit agencies and we support those products in the field, side by side with the operators. 

How significant is the transit market within BAE Systems? 

BAE Systems is a global Fortune 500 aerospace and defense company. Inside of that, it’s not so much our presence in transit that the company focuses on. It’s really the technology we bring.

The technology we’ve developed for the transit market, both in Europe and North America, has spread into other markets, like military applications, ground vehicle applications in the military and maritime applications. 

Most recently, in May of this year, BAE Systems opened a new energy storage R&D and production site on our campus in Endicott, New York.

It leverages a lot of the work we’ve done in transit for years as we are now evolving that product line into energy storage systems for hybrid and all-electric aircraft.

So, in terms of importance, our powertrain technology, our system controls and our energy storage capabilities that we’ve invested in and tuned for the last 30 years are now kind of spreading their wings within the company into other areas.

The place and the role of hybrid technology in public transport

BAE Systems has been recently advocating hybrid technology, and there have been some significant orders. Why do you think hybrids are a good solution for the U.S. transit market at this point?

First of all, it’s a proven solution. Hybrid-electric buses have been around for 20-plus years. Our solution is an electric motor-based solution, so it is a transferable technology for fleets transitioning to zero emissions.

One of the exciting things we’re highlighting at APTA this year is our plug-in hybrid solution, which can be adapted to a zero-emission bus at midlife.

Think about the backbone of a bus: the electric motor, the power inverters and now the capability to plug in a hybrid. Those are all the same components and features you need for a plug-in battery bus.

Hybrid has seen somewhat of a rebound, in particular because it’s proven and it is a transitional technology, but also because it’s a one-to-one replacement for diesel buses. You don’t need infrastructure to deploy a hybrid bus.

But you still get fuel economy and zero emission capabilities. So you’re checking the box from an environmental-benefit perspective.

And every time you buy a BAE Systems hybrid bus, I call it a workforce development tool. It’s the same technology, the same diagnostics and the same troubleshooting skills transit agencies need to deploy fully zero emission solutions.

Looking at zero-emission buses, we have traditionally seen the U.S. as a market at the forefront of innovation. Globally, however, the city bus market is clearly moving towards zero emissions. What trajectory do you see for the U.S.?

Long term, I still believe zero emission is the end state. It’s just: how fast do we get there? That’s the guessing game at this point.

We still see transit agencies investing in zero-emission infrastructure. We see transit agencies and metropolitan areas sticking to their emission targets and zero-emission goals.

So I think there’s both the technology and infrastructure piece coming along, as well as the environmental will to get there. It’s just happening at a slower rate. 

From a supplier’s perspective, how do you approach investment in new technologies as the U.S. transit market evolves?

As a supplier, not just BAE Systems but our competitors are always weighing the investment in technology against the opportunity for sales and market penetration.

We’ve always seen the end state as zero emissions, but we continue to add features and deploy new technology.

For example, that hybrid plug-in capability is a new capability that we’ll feature at APTA Expo. Another feature we’ll highlight at APTA is the ability to service our accessory power management inverters in the field.

Typically, those inverters in the industry have to be shipped back to the OEM or the supplier for either fixing or replacement. We’re going to display the capability to service them in the field.

You can take them apart, you can diagnose them, you can have the tools and training to do so safely, and then fix them yourself and just order parts, rather than complete unit replacement.

A few years ago, you announced the development of a hybrid drivetrain with Cummins, which was originally expected in 2027. How is the product progressing, and how is the cooperation with Cummins going?

Yes, Cummins has a new engine line coming out. It’s progressing. So that new engine development we were working on moved by a year, but we’re still on pace to deliver what’s called the 7.2-liter engine hybrid system.

We have it integrated on a bus platform. We have it scheduled to go to Altoona, and it will be ready for its release in January 2028.

We have orders for it already. So we have the market demand, fleets are anxious to get their hands on it, and we see no reason why it wouldn’t come to market on time.

BAE Systems at APTA Expo

You’ve already mentioned some of the developments BAE Systems will present at APTA. Is there anything else you can disclose about what you will showcase in Chicago?

First, we’re going to showcase our system-level integration capability.

At our booth, we will display a fully integrated powertrain with the cables, to really give a visual of how it is all connected together in terms of simplicity. That’s really where BAE Systems has an advantage.

We have eliminated the need for junction boxes and connectors, and we’ve eliminated a lot of cabling — all areas of potential troubleshooting problems or field failures. Every time you eliminate an element, you make it more reliable and more efficient.

So we’re going to showcase our system for the first time. BAE is unique in that capability, where we deliver a full system versus just one or two components. 

Also, we have a strong aftermarket capability and we’re going to be teaching agencies the steps and highlighting the process of field-servicing our modular accessory power system.

So we’re going to have a system-level presence at the booth, as well as an aftermarket presence.

One final topic: autonomous driving has become increasingly prominent at transit discussions in Europe and Asia. BAE Systems has capabilities beyond its transit electrification activities. Do you see the company playing a role in autonomous transit, and how do you see this technology developing in the U.S. market?

BAE Systems has autonomous capabilities, particularly on the military side of the market. Our system is autonomous-capable in terms of connectivity. We can communicate with autonomous software, and that’s been a feature of ours for years.

Where do I see it evolving? It’s been slow. I think it’s very interesting. Of course there’s some angst about it, from drivers and jobs and safety concerns. However, some U.S. transit agencies have demonstrated autonomous vehicles. To be quite honest, I’m looking forward to APTA to learn the latest and greatest myself.